2025 · Week 9

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

16·13

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -12.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.122
  • 43.7%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.274
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.44CPOE+5.62
  • 35.7%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.39
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
CARQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:21956Turnover0–0
CARQ1 6:341564Turnover0–0
GBQ2 12:55858Field goal0–3
CARQ2 7:531171Touchdown7–3
GBQ2 2:221170Field goal7–6
GBQ3 15:00843Missed field goal7–6
CARQ3 10:34618Punt7–6
GBQ3 7:41413Turnover7–6
CARQ3 6:27935Touchdown13–6
GBQ3 2:121358Turnover on downs13–6
CARQ4 10:45523Punt13–6
GBQ4 7:241271Touchdown13–13
CARQ4 2:32840Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young11/2010201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle251305.22
Chuba Hubbard5173.40
Bryce Young294.50
Jimmy Horn Jr.177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan46460
Xavier Legette13220
Rico Dowdle23110
Jalen Coker1190
Brycen Tremayne1180
Ja'Tavion Sanders1150
Jimmy Horn Jr.1210
Chuba Hubbard0100
Tommy Tremble0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love26/3727301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17875.11
Emanuel Wilson6162.70
Jordan Love111.00
Savion Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs710910
Christian Watson24580
Luke Musgrave33340
Chris Brooks22240
Tucker Kraft23200
Josh Jacobs45130
Savion Williams22120
Malik Heath11110
Matthew Golden2390
Emanuel Wilson1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.67