Closing spread
GB -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.122
- 43.7%Success rate48.0%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.274
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.44CPOE+5.62
- 35.7%Third-down rate48.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.80Points / drive2.39
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 11/20 | 102 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 25 | 130 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 26/37 | 273 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 7 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67