Closing spread
GB -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.074
- 42.3%Success rate45.5%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.77CPOE+0.41
- 33.6%Third-down rate42.1%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.72Points / drive2.31
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/48 | 369 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 12 | 99 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| James Jones | 2 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 5 | 9 | 19 | 2 |
| Eddie Lacy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/30 | 297 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.40