2015 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

29·37

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -2

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.074
  • 42.3%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.77CPOE+0.41
  • 33.6%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.31
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CAR
CARQ1 15:00868Field goal0–3
GBQ1 10:123-7Punt0–3
CARQ1 7:4534Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:461170Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 0:55780Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 12:0947Punt7–10
CARQ2 10:19362Touchdown7–17
GBQ2 8:553-1Punt7–17
CARQ2 7:54520Field goal7–20
GBQ2 4:5920Turnover7–20
CARQ2 4:473-1Missed field goal7–20
GBQ2 3:503-7Punt7–20
CARQ2 1:53452Touchdown7–27
GBQ2 0:41671End of half7–27
GBQ3 15:00365Touchdown14–27
CARQ3 14:0032Punt14–27
GBQ3 13:04518Punt14–27
CARQ3 11:231277Field goal14–30
GBQ3 4:4838Punt14–30
CARQ3 3:5331Punt14–30
GBQ3 2:55611Punt14–30
CARQ3 0:3839Punt14–30
GBQ4 13:4330Punt14–30
CARQ4 11:43640Touchdown14–37
GBQ4 9:22679Touchdown22–37
CARQ4 7:5435Punt22–37
GBQ4 6:21982Touchdown29–37
CARQ4 3:4310Turnover29–37
GBQ4 3:38813Turnover29–37
CARQ4 1:5438Punt29–37
GBQ4 0:061-7End of half29–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/4836941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks10393.90
Aaron Rodgers4225.50
Eddie Lacy5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb412991
Davante Adams711930
James Starks68831
James Jones26570
Richard Rodgers59192
Eddie Lacy0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/3029731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart20663.30
Cam Newton9576.31
Fozzy Whittaker2136.50
Joe Webb1-1-1.00
Corey Brown1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery36820
Devin Funchess34711
Greg Olsen47661
Corey Brown24501
Ted Ginn14200
Ed Dickson1260
Jonathan Stewart1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.40