Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.160
- 45.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.155
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.07CPOE-1.80
- 47.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 2.16Points / drive1.00
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 17/28 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 23/36 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 6 | 8 | 98 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.74