2023 · Week 16

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

33·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.160
  • 45.1%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.155
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.07CPOE-1.80
  • 47.4%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.00
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CAR
CARQ1 15:0063Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:28874Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 7:30530Field goal7–3
GBQ1 5:241079Touchdown13–3
CARQ2 14:57877Touchdown13–10
GBQ2 10:29730Field goal16–10
CARQ2 7:51635Turnover on downs16–10
GBQ2 4:121160Touchdown23–10
CARQ2 0:4939Punt23–10
GBQ2 0:1848End of half23–10
GBQ3 15:003-7Punt23–10
CARQ3 13:311557Touchdown23–16
GBQ3 5:11958Touchdown30–16
CARQ4 14:57422Punt30–16
GBQ4 12:3731Punt30–16
CARQ4 11:381062Touchdown30–22
GBQ4 7:1435Punt30–22
CARQ4 5:47555Touchdown30–30
GBQ4 4:05861Field goal33–30
CARQ4 0:19244End of half33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love17/2821920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones211276.00
Jordan Love2126.01
AJ Dillon7121.71
Bo Melton177.00
Patrick Taylor341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs45791
Tucker Kraft46600
Bo Melton46440
Dontayvion Wicks22291
Aaron Jones1380
Samori Toure0200
Malik Heath1100
Patrick Taylor11-10

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young23/3631220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard16432.71
Ihmir Smith-Marsette23316.51
Bryce Young4174.30
Miles Sanders331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark68982
Adam Thielen68940
Tommy Tremble46590
Stephen Sullivan35210
Ihmir Smith-Marsette11180
Jonathan Mingo1190
Chuba Hubbard1180
Miles Sanders1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.74