Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapPackers
- +0.130EPA / play-0.181
- 47.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.242EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.438
- 11.8%Explosive rate13.2%
- +4.17CPOE-9.65
- 44.4%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.90Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64