2026 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

19·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.9%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.266
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.58CPOE-1.28
  • 39.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.96
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
GBQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
CARQ1 14:5558Field goal3–0
GBQ1 11:4337Punt3–0
CARQ1 10:1334Punt3–0
GBQ1 8:41944Touchdown3–6
CARQ1 5:081365Touchdown10–6
GBQ2 14:57528Turnover10–6
CARQ2 12:2431Punt10–6
GBQ2 11:20986Touchdown10–13
CARQ2 6:3342Turnover10–13
GBQ2 5:18848Touchdown10–20
CARQ2 1:4630Punt10–20
GBQ2 1:15414Punt10–20
CARQ2 0:3237End of half10–20
CARQ3 15:00625Turnover on downs10–20
GBQ3 12:18850Touchdown10–27
CARQ3 7:30737Field goal13–27
GBQ3 4:071051Turnover13–27
CARQ4 14:28514Punt13–27
GBQ4 12:1238Punt13–27
CARQ4 10:401385Touchdown19–27
GBQ4 5:3745Punt19–27
CARQ4 4:3545Turnover on downs19–27
GBQ4 2:41613Punt19–27
CARQ4 0:2225Turnover19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young23/4120911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard22813.71
Trevor Etienne111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan611580
Chuba Hubbard78380
Jalen Coker25361
Mitchell Evans22220
Tommy Tremble13190
John Metchie III33140
Darren Waller12110
Brycen Tremayne11110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love30/4128831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs21391.91
Savion Williams11818.00
MarShawn Lloyd372.30
Pierre Strong122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson8101130
Matthew Golden713791
Tucker Kraft66531
J. Michael Sturdivant11160
Josh Jacobs66131
MarShawn Lloyd1190
Savion Williams1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.19