Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.018
- 45.2%Success rate41.3%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.27CPOE-2.85
- 39.5%Third-down rate43.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.77Points / drive1.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/45 | 290 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 14 | 84 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/31 | 242 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 9 | 12 | 116 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 4 | 25 | 2 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.07