2017 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.018
  • 45.2%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.096
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.27CPOE-2.85
  • 39.5%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CAR
GBQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:321585Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:571175Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 15:001151Field goal7–10
GBQ2 9:0225Turnover7–10
CARQ2 8:2234Punt7–10
GBQ2 7:17753Punt7–10
CARQ2 4:31611Punt7–10
GBQ2 1:55458Touchdown14–10
CARQ2 0:26443End of half14–10
CARQ3 15:00778Touchdown14–17
GBQ3 11:3421Turnover14–17
CARQ3 10:48846Touchdown14–24
GBQ3 7:2030Turnover14–24
CARQ3 7:013-4Punt14–24
GBQ3 5:141147Field goal17–24
CARQ3 1:23870Touchdown17–31
GBQ4 12:241435Turnover on downs17–31
CARQ4 5:4137Punt17–31
GBQ4 3:54671Touchdown24–31
CARQ4 2:4300Turnover24–31
GBQ4 2:40424Turnover24–31
CARQ4 1:5000End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4529033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones34715.70
Aaron Rodgers6437.20
Jamaal Williams10303.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb714841
Richard Rodgers44771
Davante Adams57571
Geronimo Allison58330
Jordy Nelson36280
Aaron Jones1260
Lance Kendricks1250

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3124240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey12635.30
Cam Newton14584.10
Jonathan Stewart11272.50
Fozzy Whittaker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen9121161
Christian McCaffrey67731
Damiere Byrd34252
Devin Funchess14190
Jonathan Stewart1190
Kaelin Clay0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.07