Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
53
Model margin
+7.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.221
- 45.8%Success rate50.7%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.88CPOE+6.90
- 39.5%Third-down rate50.7%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.21Points / drive2.98
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 21/35 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Rodney Smith | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 8 | 131 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/29 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 145 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.6%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.90