2020 · Week 15

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

16·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

53

Model margin

+7.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.221
  • 45.8%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.88CPOE+6.90
  • 39.5%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.98
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
CARQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:37781Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:54757Field goal3–7
GBQ1 5:571474Touchdown3–14
CARQ2 14:091365Turnover3–14
GBQ2 7:29742Touchdown3–21
CARQ2 3:5830Punt3–21
GBQ2 3:28734Punt3–21
CARQ2 1:29420Punt3–21
GBQ2 0:55411Punt3–21
GBQ3 15:0033Punt3–21
CARQ3 14:05510Punt3–21
GBQ3 11:123-1Punt3–21
CARQ3 9:08846Touchdown10–21
GBQ3 5:15414Punt10–21
CARQ3 2:231686Field goal13–21
GBQ4 8:39942Field goal13–24
CARQ4 3:39561Field goal16–24
GBQ4 2:043-8Punt16–24
CARQ4 0:55511Turnover on downs16–24
GBQ4 0:1300End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater21/3525800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis14594.20
Teddy Bridgewater4266.51
Rodney Smith4235.80
Curtis Samuel263.00
Brandon Zylstra111.00
DJ Moore111.00
Robbie Chosen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore681310
Curtis Samuel49420
Ian Thomas34290
Rodney Smith34240
Robbie Chosen25210
Alex Armah1190
Mike Davis2220
Pharoh Cooper0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/2914310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones201457.31
Aaron Rodgers5265.21
AJ Dillon11818.00
Jamaal Williams166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard56560
Davante Adams710420
Robert Tonyan33181
Jamaal Williams22140
Aaron Jones34130
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.6%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.90