Closing spread
GB -5
Total
49
Model margin
+6.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.059
- 43.3%Success rate43.9%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.45CPOE+0.96
- 32.4%Third-down rate37.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.56Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 28/43 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 9 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/29 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 93 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.39