2019 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

16·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

49

Model margin

+6.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.059
  • 43.3%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.062
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.45CPOE+0.96
  • 32.4%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
CARQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:44312Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:52553Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 7:18855Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 3:35843Field goal10–7
GBQ2 14:5548Punt10–7
CARQ2 13:2129Turnover10–7
GBQ2 12:40652Touchdown10–14
CARQ2 9:20624Punt10–14
GBQ2 5:071570End of half10–14
GBQ3 15:00684Touchdown10–21
CARQ3 11:501076Turnover10–21
GBQ3 7:101156Field goal10–24
CARQ3 1:211082Touchdown16–24
GBQ4 11:58526Punt16–24
CARQ4 9:1758Punt16–24
GBQ4 6:31625Punt16–24
CARQ4 2:251983End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen28/4330711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey201085.41
Kyle Allen3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore9111200
Greg Olsen810980
Curtis Samuel48351
Christian McCaffrey67330
Jarius Wright12210

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2923300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13937.23
Jamaal Williams13634.80
Aaron Rodgers177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7101180
Jimmy Graham23590
Allen Lazard36270
Jake Kumerow22230
Geronimo Allison3360
Danny Vitale0100
Jamaal Williams0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.39