Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.142
- 44.6%Success rate47.1%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.27CPOE+2.68
- 41.1%Third-down rate47.1%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.63Points / drive2.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/31 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 5/8 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 8 | 105 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Brandon Williams | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 3 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/22 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| James Starks | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 7 | 121 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Dorsey | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38