2014 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.142
  • 44.6%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.68
  • 41.1%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
GBQ1 15:00611Touchdown0–6
GBQ1 12:01159Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 11:5100Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 11:5133Punt0–7
GBQ1 10:031051Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 5:533-7Punt0–14
GBQ1 4:15547Touchdown0–21
CARQ1 2:0749Punt0–21
GBQ1 0:2136Punt0–21
CARQ2 14:00933Punt0–21
GBQ2 10:04994Touchdown0–28
CARQ2 4:0735Punt0–28
GBQ2 3:0933Punt0–28
CARQ2 1:51770Field goal3–28
CARQ3 15:00638Turnover on downs3–28
GBQ3 12:14458Touchdown3–35
CARQ3 10:20521Punt3–35
GBQ3 7:53417Punt3–35
CARQ3 5:04737Turnover3–35
GBQ3 2:18417Field goal3–38
CARQ3 0:081167Touchdown10–38
GBQ4 9:3933Punt10–38
CARQ4 7:17511Punt10–38
GBQ4 5:2830Punt10–38
CARQ4 4:21744Touchdown17–38
GBQ4 1:2400End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/3120511
Derek Anderson5/84310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart13503.80
Cam Newton7415.90
Chris Ogbonnaya5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen881050
Kelvin Benjamin36611
Brandon Williams23220
Jerricho Cotchery38210
Brenton Bersin35211
Jonathan Stewart12120
Jason Avant2560
Chris Ogbonnaya0100
Ed Dickson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2225530
Matt Flynn0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy12635.31
James Starks7365.11
Aaron Rodgers3217.00
Randall Cobb122.00
DuJuan Harris2-1-0.50
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb671211
Jordy Nelson45801
Davante Adams11211
Eddie Lacy33100
Andrew Quarless1190
James Starks1170
Kevin Dorsey1240
Brandon Bostick1220
Richard Rodgers1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.38