1999 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

28·44

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

Cinergy Field · outdoors · astroturf · 41°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

41

Model margin

+3.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.068
  • 35.3%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.132
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 29.7%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 74.3%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.24
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.100EPA / play allowed+0.041

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:231057Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 7:574-6Punt0–3
CINQ1 6:09742Turnover0–3
CLEQ1 3:2737Opp touchdown0–10
CINQ1 2:1800Opp touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 2:18458Touchdown7–10
CINQ1 0:00775Touchdown7–17
CLEQ2 12:1136Punt7–17
CINQ2 10:5236Punt7–17
CLEQ2 9:20336Turnover7–17
CINQ2 8:231089Touchdown7–23
CLEQ2 2:34558Touchdown15–23
CINQ2 0:45316Touchdown15–30
CLEQ2 0:1519End of half15–30
CINQ3 15:00523Touchdown15–37
CLEQ3 13:1430Punt15–37
CINQ3 12:3638Punt15–37
CLEQ3 11:14519Turnover15–37
CINQ3 8:464-3Punt15–37
CLEQ3 6:42639Touchdown21–37
CINQ3 5:02575Touchdown21–44
CLEQ3 3:1500Turnover on downs21–44
CINQ3 3:04940Turnover on downs21–44
CLEQ4 13:0351Turnover21–44
CINQ4 10:331035Turnover on downs21–44
CLEQ4 4:511593Touchdown28–44
CINQ4 0:4900End of half28–44

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch16/2823922
Ty Detmer6/138910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar5102.00
Terry Kirby351.71
Ty Detmer122.00
Kevin Johnson1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson7121350
Darrin Chiaverini48481
Ronnie Powell11450
Mark Campbell23330
Irv Smith35331
Terry Kirby23240
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar2271
Zola Davis0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake11/2217610
Scott Covington1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon281926.93
Michael Basnight12443.70
Jeff Blake4287.00
Nicolas Luchey382.70
Craig Yeast1-3-3.00
Scott Covington2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott27751
Carl Pickens34460
Tony McGee34270
Corey Dillon24200
Damon Griffin1180
Michael Basnight1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.24