Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.068
- 35.3%Success rate39.4%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.132
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- 29.7%Third-down rate39.2%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.12Points / drive1.24
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Ty Detmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 7 | 12 | 135 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 4 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| Ronnie Powell | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Terry Kirby | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Zola Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 11/22 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Covington | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 28 | 192 | 6.9 | 3 |
| Michael Basnight | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Covington | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Carl Pickens | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24