1999 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
36
Model margin
+3.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.149
- 38.8%Success rate35.1%
- +0.024EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- 35.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.03
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 23/44 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 7 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 23/37 | 297 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin McLeod | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.62