Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
37
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.030
- 37.3%Success rate38.9%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- 34.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.17Points / drive1.28
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 26 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:33 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:48 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:38 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:09 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:55 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| MIA | Q2 7:35 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:39 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 6–3 |
| MIA | Q2 3:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:51 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 6–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q3 9:19 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:43 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 13–6 |
| MIA | Q3 2:33 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:42 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| MIA | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:21 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 13–19 |
| MIA | Q4 9:34 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 13–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:00 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 13–22 |
| MIA | Q4 2:51 | 5 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 13–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:44 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–28 |
| MIA | Q4 1:44 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 19/40 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
| Damon Huard | 6/7 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Pritchett | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yatil Green | 4 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Nate Jacquet | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 22/37 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 11 | 16 | 144 | 2 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14