2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

20·32

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.001
  • 44.3%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.108
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.08CPOE-1.89
  • 35.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:1510Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 13:0437Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 11:46410Punt3–0
MIAQ1 10:00422Punt3–0
NYJQ1 7:56413Punt3–0
MIAQ1 5:00876Field goal6–0
NYJQ2 15:0035Punt6–0
MIAQ2 14:0633Punt6–0
NYJQ2 11:47879Touchdown6–7
MIAQ2 7:57223Turnover6–7
NYJQ2 7:09945Turnover on downs6–7
MIAQ2 3:154-1Turnover6–7
NYJQ2 1:47339Touchdown6–15
MIAQ2 0:59411Turnover6–15
NYJQ2 0:2112End of half6–15
NYJQ3 15:0047Punt6–15
MIAQ3 12:2134Turnover6–15
NYJQ3 10:331035Field goal6–18
MIAQ3 6:351583Touchdown13–18
NYJQ4 14:12770Touchdown13–25
MIAQ4 10:241270Touchdown20–25
NYJQ4 5:21970Touchdown20–32
MIAQ4 2:30934End of half20–32

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley25/4122712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane1112111.01
Tyler Huntley3165.30
Jaylen Waddle166.00
Jeff Wilson2-4-2.00
Jaylen Wright6-4-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith912561
Malik Washington45480
Jaylen Waddle49440
River Cracraft44380
Tyreek Hill23200
Durham Smythe0100
Julian Hill0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3627441
Allen Lazard0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall12574.80
Isaiah Davis44110.30
Braelon Allen4153.80
Xavier Gipson155.00
Garrett Wilson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams612881
Allen Lazard33711
Garrett Wilson45510
Kenny Yeboah22200
Tyler Conklin23161
Breece Hall35151
Braelon Allen2380
Jeremy Ruckert1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.51