Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.001
- 44.3%Success rate43.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.08CPOE-1.89
- 35.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.92Points / drive1.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 25/41 | 227 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 121 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 6 | -4 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 9 | 12 | 56 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/36 | 274 | 4 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51