Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play-0.129
- 42.1%Success rate40.5%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.5%
- +1.82CPOE-4.21
- 34.1%Third-down rate35.0%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.92Points / drive1.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 13/21 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 92 | 13.1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 14/30 | 163 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brady Cook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Taylor | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.96