2025 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

34·10

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.021EPA / play-0.129
  • 42.1%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +1.82CPOE-4.21
  • 34.1%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.54
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:00464Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 12:4633Punt7–0
MIAQ1 11:44580Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 8:4836Turnover14–0
MIAQ1 7:27634Touchdown21–0
NYJQ1 3:3939Punt21–0
MIAQ1 2:0738Opp touchdown21–7
MIAQ1 0:20514Punt21–7
NYJQ2 14:0239Punt21–7
MIAQ2 11:453-4Punt21–7
NYJQ2 9:53313Punt21–7
MIAQ2 7:10845Field goal24–7
NYJQ2 1:5677Turnover24–7
MIAQ2 0:3035Punt24–7
NYJQ2 0:1020End of half24–7
NYJQ3 15:00516Punt24–7
MIAQ3 12:1136Punt24–7
NYJQ3 10:3247Punt24–7
MIAQ3 8:22934Punt24–7
NYJQ3 2:381170Field goal24–10
MIAQ4 12:13967Touchdown31–10
NYJQ4 6:18816Turnover on downs31–10
MIAQ4 4:3057Field goal34–10
NYJQ4 2:24751Turnover34–10
MIAQ4 1:1400End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa13/2112710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Wright241074.51
De'Von Achane79213.11
Jaylen Waddle12121.00
Ollie Gordon II5173.41
Darren Waller144.00
Tua Tagovailoa100.00
Zach Wilson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle57501
Greg Dulcich33410
Darren Waller13130
De'Von Achane11130
Malik Washington34100
Jaylen Wright0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Cook14/3016302
Tyrod Taylor1/4601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall14433.10
Isaiah Davis22211.00
Brady Cook100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mason Taylor58510
John Metchie III48340
Isaiah Williams23240
Adonai Mitchell16240
Jeremy Ruckert23190
Allen Lazard0100
Stone Smartt0100
Breece Hall0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.96