Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.021
- 40.5%Success rate42.1%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.028
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.21CPOE+1.82
- 35.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.54Points / drive1.92
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 20/27 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/25 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 2 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.21