2025 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

21·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.021
  • 40.5%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.028
  • 6.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.21CPOE+1.82
  • 35.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.92
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00937Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 10:511381Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 3:0015110Touchdown0–10
NYJQ2 9:20925Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 4:16410Punt0–10
NYJQ2 1:521044Field goal3–10
NYJQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–10
MIAQ3 14:53636Touchdown3–17
NYJQ3 11:33452Touchdown10–17
MIAQ3 9:23843Touchdown10–24
NYJQ3 5:20414Punt10–24
MIAQ3 2:3532Punt10–24
NYJQ3 1:24656Field goal13–24
MIAQ4 13:0936Punt13–24
NYJQ4 11:24843Punt13–24
MIAQ4 7:02756Field goal13–27
NYJQ4 3:33761Touchdown21–27
MIAQ4 1:4930Punt21–27
NYJQ4 0:02111End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields20/2722610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields78111.61
Breece Hall14815.80
Braelon Allen4266.50
Isaiah Davis393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson68821
Mason Taylor57650
Breece Hall56300
Jeremy Ruckert11230
Isaiah Davis22180
Allen Lazard1180
Josh Reynolds0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa17/2517720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane20995.01
Ollie Gordon II6101.70
Malik Washington284.00
Tua Tagovailoa362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill66670
Jaylen Waddle36480
Darren Waller34272
Julian Hill12190
Malik Washington23130
De'Von Achane1220
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1110
Ollie Gordon II0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.21