2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

6·11

Dolphins

Miami

QB Skylar Thompson

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-4.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.054
  • 39.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.050
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.97CPOE+0.08
  • 34.3%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.11
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00936Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 9:48614Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:06868Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:2139Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:1132Punt0–0
NYJQ2 12:25518Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ2 10:48931Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 5:171061Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 1:35412End of half3–3
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt3–3
MIAQ3 13:301477Field goal3–6
NYJQ3 5:181473Field goal6–6
MIAQ4 11:59638Punt6–6
NYJQ4 9:05811Punt6–6
MIAQ4 6:31517Punt6–6
NYJQ4 4:44312Punt6–6
MIAQ4 3:01721Field goal6–9
NYJQ4 0:183-20Safety6–11

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3314900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight12221.80
Ty Johnson5122.40
Michael Carter341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson917890
Corey Davis13170
Tyler Conklin24130
Ty Johnson23130
Elijah Moore11110
Jeremy Ruckert1180
Michael Carter2310

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Skylar Thompson20/3115200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson16724.50
Raheem Mostert11716.50
Jaylen Waddle199.00
Salvon Ahmed177.00
Skylar Thompson331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki46460
Jaylen Waddle55440
Durham Smythe35390
Tyreek Hill25230
River Cracraft1150
Erik Ezukanma1130
Jeff Wilson2220
Raheem Mostert22-100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.5%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.79