Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.054
- 39.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.97CPOE+0.08
- 34.3%Third-down rate37.6%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.41Points / drive2.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/33 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 17 | 89 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 20/31 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-7.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.79