Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+11.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapJets
- -0.242EPA / play+0.126
- 34.5%Success rate48.4%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.038
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.9%
- -8.85CPOE+12.84
- 20.0%Third-down rate18.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.18Points / drive2.08
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.82
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+11.48