2026 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

28·25

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.011
  • 39.8%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -6.93CPOE+5.33
  • 40.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:00776Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 10:53465Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 8:371460Touchdown14–7
NYJQ1 1:02947Turnover14–7
MIAQ2 11:5938Punt14–7
NYJQ2 11:1063Punt14–7
MIAQ2 8:441687Touchdown21–7
NYJQ2 0:0600End of half21–7
NYJQ3 15:00843Missed field goal21–7
MIAQ3 10:0235Punt21–7
NYJQ3 8:16783Touchdown21–14
MIAQ3 5:50928Punt21–14
NYJQ3 0:071168Field goal21–17
MIAQ4 8:5732Punt21–17
NYJQ4 7:4834Punt21–17
MIAQ4 6:09371Touchdown28–17
NYJQ4 4:44965Touchdown28–25
MIAQ4 3:24525End of half28–25

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis14/2120820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ollie Gordon II251034.11
Malik Willis8374.61
Jaylen Wright681.30
Malik Washington284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dulcich55860
Caleb Douglas23702
Malik Washington33270
Chris Bell34250
Jaylen Wright0100
Ollie Gordon II1300
Kevin Coleman Jr.0100
Seydou Traore0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3028731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen171046.10
Isaiah Davis155.00
Geno Smith200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Omar Cooper Jr.551151
Mason Taylor56622
Isaiah Davis33490
Braelon Allen67300
Garrett Wilson23260
Kenyon Sadiq1160
Adonai Mitchell0300
Jelani Woods11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.78