2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

26·32

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.040
  • 43.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.246
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.89CPOE+3.08
  • 39.7%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.92
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 10:241151Field goal3–6
MIAQ1 5:19949Field goal3–9
NYJQ2 14:53675Touchdown10–9
MIAQ2 11:561270Field goal10–12
NYJQ2 4:561268Field goal13–12
MIAQ2 0:49331Field goal13–15
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half13–15
NYJQ3 15:00770Touchdown20–15
MIAQ3 11:20522Punt20–15
NYJQ3 8:511558Field goal23–15
MIAQ3 1:0230Punt23–15
NYJQ3 0:343-1Punt23–15
MIAQ4 13:231037Touchdown23–23
NYJQ4 9:0436Punt23–23
MIAQ4 7:33621Punt23–23
NYJQ4 4:251063Field goal26–23
MIAQ4 0:52520Field goal26–26
NYJQ4 0:07112End of half26–26
MIAOT870Touchdown26–32

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3933910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen11433.90
Isaiah Davis10404.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson7101140
Davante Adams9111091
Braelon Allen45380
Tyler Conklin35330
Isaiah Davis36270
Allen Lazard11180
Jeremy Ruckert0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa33/4733120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane14241.71
Jaylen Wright273.50
Tyreek Hill166.00
Jeff Wilson144.00
Tua Tagovailoa133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill10141151
Jaylen Waddle912990
De'Von Achane67450
Jonnu Smith34441
Julian Hill11140
Jeff Wilson1170
Jaylen Wright2360
Odell Beckham Jr.1110
Durham Smythe0100
Malik Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.16