Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.040
- 43.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.246
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.89CPOE+3.08
- 39.7%Third-down rate35.4%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/39 | 339 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 11 | 109 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 33/47 | 331 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 14 | 115 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9 | 12 | 99 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.16