Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
36
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play+0.095
- 35.6%Success rate47.3%
- -0.250EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.009
- 6.2%Explosive rate11.5%
- -5.18CPOE+4.40
- 25.5%Third-down rate42.5%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.01Points / drive2.34
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 14/26 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
| Zach Wilson | 4/11 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/24 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike White | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 2 |
| De'Von Achane | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike White | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 142 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.63