2023 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

0·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

36

Model margin

+2.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.230EPA / play+0.095
  • 35.6%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.009
  • 6.2%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -5.18CPOE+4.40
  • 25.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.01Points / drive2.34
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:104-8Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 9:0531Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:37716Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ1 5:23937Field goal0–10
NYJQ2 13:563-6Punt0–10
MIAQ2 11:293-1Punt0–10
NYJQ2 9:193-3Punt0–16
MIAQ2 7:51160Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 7:4264Punt0–17
MIAQ2 5:271165Touchdown0–24
NYJQ2 1:0351Punt0–24
NYJQ3 15:0041Punt0–24
MIAQ3 13:57831Field goal0–27
NYJQ3 8:36842Turnover0–27
MIAQ3 4:251252Field goal0–30
NYJQ4 11:42832Turnover0–30
MIAQ4 8:32512Punt0–30
NYJQ4 6:031024Turnover0–30
MIAQ4 2:4210Punt0–30
NYJQ4 0:2210End of half0–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian14/2611002
Zach Wilson4/112600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall6122.00
Israel Abanikanda482.00
Dalvin Cook144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson34290
Xavier Gipson26290
Allen Lazard36210
Tyler Conklin47180
Jeremy Ruckert22160
Israel Abanikanda22110
Dalvin Cook1160
Breece Hall1260
Randall Cobb0300

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/2422410
Mike White2/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert15422.82
De'Von Achane9323.60
Jeff Wilson252.50
Mike White2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle891421
Durham Smythe44320
De'Von Achane33300
Braxton Berrios11120
Chase Claypool2280
Cedrick Wilson Jr.2320
Raheem Mostert2210
Jeff Wilson1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.63