Closing spread
MIA -9.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.230
- 47.3%Success rate35.6%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.191
- 11.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.40CPOE-5.18
- 42.5%Third-down rate25.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 2.34Points / drive1.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/30 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Jeff Wilson | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mike White | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 27/38 | 179 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 10 | 44 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Brownlee | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22