2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

34·13

Jets

New York

QB Tim Boyle

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIA -9.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.230
  • 47.3%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.191
  • 11.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +4.40CPOE-5.18
  • 42.5%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.01
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:561166Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 6:3338Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:57636Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 1:2633Punt3–0
MIAQ2 14:201160Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 8:21411Punt10–0
MIAQ2 6:09520Punt10–0
NYJQ2 2:17314Punt10–6
MIAQ2 1:0510Opp touchdown10–6
MIAQ2 0:58532Turnover16–6
NYJQ2 0:0210Opp touchdown17–6
MIAQ3 15:00639Field goal20–6
NYJQ3 11:1633Punt20–6
MIAQ3 8:581682Touchdown27–6
NYJQ4 14:551855Turnover27–6
MIAQ4 7:54316Turnover27–6
NYJQ4 6:25730Touchdown27–13
MIAQ4 4:37446Touchdown34–13
NYJQ4 3:351024Turnover on downs34–13
MIAQ4 0:3500End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3024312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert20944.72
Jeff Wilson11565.10
Darrynton Evans2168.00
Tyreek Hill122.00
Tua Tagovailoa210.50
Mike White1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle881140
Tyreek Hill9121021
Jeff Wilson33170
Durham Smythe13100
Raheem Mostert0100
Braxton Berrios0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle27/3817912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall7253.60
Dalvin Cook122.00
Tim Boyle221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson710441
Tyler Conklin45330
Breece Hall79240
Jason Brownlee22200
Dalvin Cook23190
Jeremy Ruckert24180
Xavier Gipson22150
Nick Bawden1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

0.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.22