Closing spread
IND -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.072
- 37.4%Success rate41.4%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.19Points / drive1.88
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 31/44 | 379 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 9 | 12 | 148 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/27 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| E.G. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93