Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:46 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:14 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:34 | 8 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:24 | 9 | 59 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:25 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:29 | 11 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 4:47 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 4:25 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 0:35 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q3 8:46 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q3 2:36 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q4 12:41 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q4 11:09 | 6 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q4 8:01 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q4 3:59 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q4 0:57 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 12/20 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 28 | 199 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Kent | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.