Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 12/20 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 28 | 199 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Kent | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.