2025 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

10·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRaiders
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.192
  • 37.9%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.304
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -3.50CPOE-0.91
  • 32.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W3LV @ TEN22–24TEN
2019 · W14TEN @ OAK42–21TEN
2017 · W1OAK @ TEN26–16RAIDERS
2016 · W3OAK @ TEN17–10RAIDERS
2015 · W12OAK @ TEN24–21RAIDERS
2013 · W12TEN @ OAK23–19TEN
2010 · W1OAK @ TEN13–38TEN
2007 · W8OAK @ TEN9–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–LV
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:511253Field goal0–3
TENQ1 4:07616Punt0–3
LVQ2 14:4641Punt0–3
TENQ2 13:26512Punt0–3
LVQ2 11:046-6Punt0–3
TENQ2 7:393-7Turnover0–3
LVQ2 6:0832Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 5:133-3Punt0–10
LVQ2 2:5436Punt0–10
TENQ2 1:53954Turnover0–10
LVQ2 0:0500End of half0–10
LVQ3 15:001461Touchdown0–17
TENQ3 7:04852Field goal3–17
LVQ3 1:06547Turnover3–17
TENQ4 13:5131Punt3–17
LVQ4 12:46860Field goal3–20
TENQ4 7:141362Touchdown10–20
LVQ4 3:0335Punt10–20
TENQ4 2:37729Turnover10–20
LVQ4 0:4700End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward26/3822211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard10343.40
Tyjae Spears5316.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Van Jefferson46750
Chig Okonkwo66460
Elic Ayomanor35270
Tyjae Spears44190
Calvin Ridley11180
Gunnar Helm23150
Tony Pollard22130
Chimere Dike2380
David Martin-Robinson1111
Tyler Lockett1300

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/2317411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty23753.31
Geno Smith4-3-0.80
Raheem Mostert5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker55700
Michael Mayer57501
Jakobi Meyers44390
Ashton Jeanty24110
Ian Thomas1140
Jack Bech0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50