Closing spread
LV -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.192
- 37.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.165EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.304
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- -3.50CPOE-0.91
- 32.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.36Points / drive1.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 26/38 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/23 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50