Closing spread
LV -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.066
- 43.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.03CPOE-0.94
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.46
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 26/44 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 8 | 11 | 158 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/27 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.77