2022 · Week 3

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

22·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

LV -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapTitans
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.066
  • 43.4%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.03CPOE-0.94
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.46
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6TEN @ LV10–20RAIDERS
2019 · W14TEN @ OAK42–21TEN
2017 · W1OAK @ TEN26–16RAIDERS
2016 · W3OAK @ TEN17–10RAIDERS
2015 · W12OAK @ TEN24–21RAIDERS
2013 · W12TEN @ OAK23–19TEN
2010 · W1OAK @ TEN13–38TEN
2007 · W8OAK @ TEN9–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–TEN
TENQ1 15:001385Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 7:22936Field goal3–7
TENQ1 2:19675Touchdown3–14
LVQ2 14:25779Touchdown10–14
TENQ2 9:44879Touchdown10–21
LVQ2 4:55516Punt10–21
TENQ2 2:23417Punt10–21
LVQ2 1:023-1Punt10–21
TENQ2 0:21219Field goal10–24
LVQ3 15:001366Field goal13–24
TENQ3 6:5749Turnover13–24
LVQ3 4:4745Punt13–24
TENQ3 2:56954Turnover on downs13–24
LVQ4 12:54636Turnover13–24
TENQ4 9:22626Punt13–24
LVQ4 6:08778Field goal16–24
TENQ4 3:293-1Punt16–24
LVQ4 2:571581Touchdown22–24
TENQ4 1:1400End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr26/4430321
Mack Hollins1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13665.10
Brandon Bolden3175.70
Derek Carr2178.50
Davante Adams1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins8111581
Foster Moreau34440
Davante Adams510361
Josh Jacobs55310
Darren Waller35220
Keelan Cole14120
Brandon Bolden2240

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/2726411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry20854.31
Dontrell Hilliard2147.00
Treylon Burks188.00
Ryan Tannehill420.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods49850
Derrick Henry56580
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine33400
Dontrell Hilliard11300
Geoff Swaim33191
Austin Hooper22190
Treylon Burks12130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.77