Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/41 | 256 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.