Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJamize OlawaleRBQuadricep· DNP
- OutKeith McGillSFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBShin· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian JanikowskiKBack· Limited
- DNPLee SmithTENot Injury Related
Titans
- OutLeShaun SimsCBGroin· DNP
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:49 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:58 | 16 | 59 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 7:03 | 14 | 93 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:43 | 4 | 41 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q3 10:24 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:42 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| TEN | Q3 4:31 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| TEN | Q4 11:58 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 23–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:32 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 23–13 |
| TEN | Q4 6:44 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| LV | Q4 4:49 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 26–16 |
| TEN | Q4 1:09 | 6 | 46 | Missed field goal | 26–16 |
| LV | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/41 | 256 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.