Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/27 | 391 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 153 | 2 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.