Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Titans
- OutAdam HumphriesWRAnkle· DNP
- OutAdoree' JacksonCBFoot· DNP
- OutDaren BatesLBShoulder· DNP
- OutDerick RobersonLBIllness
- OutLeShaun SimsCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTajae SharpeWRHamstring· Limited
- DNPJurrell CaseyDTNot Injury Related
Raiders
- OutHunter RenfrowWRRib· DNP
- OutKyle WilberLBAnkle· DNP
- OutTrenton BrownTPectoral· DNP
- QuestionableJosh JacobsRBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMarquel LeeLBToe· Limited
- LimitedGabe JacksonGKnee
- LimitedLamarcus JoynerSHamstring
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 54 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:00 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 7:43 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:21 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 13–7 |
| TEN | Q2 14:16 | 1 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:04 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q2 10:43 | 9 | 87 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:52 | 15 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q2 0:24 | 3 | 46 | Missed field goal | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q3 10:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 8:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q3 8:04 | 6 | 89 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–21 |
| TEN | Q3 3:22 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 35–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:29 | 3 | 22 | Opp touchdown | 42–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:12 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 42–21 |
| TEN | Q4 10:27 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 42–21 |
| LV | Q4 7:46 | 9 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 42–21 |
| TEN | Q4 3:41 | 6 | 19 | End of half | 42–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/27 | 391 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 153 | 2 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.