Closing spread
OAK -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutAustin HowardTAnkle· DNP
- OutMatt McCantsTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDarius LathamDTConcussion· Full
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Full
- QuestionableJihad WardDEHip· Full
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTGroin· Full
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Full
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Full
Titans
- QuestionableDelanie WalkerTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDerrick MorganLBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableKendall WrightWRHamstring· Limited
- DNPChance WarmackGFinger
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:50 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 8:19 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:16 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 2:30 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:52 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:20 | 4 | 1 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q2 8:13 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:17 | 8 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:33 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 49 | Punt | 17–3 |
| TEN | Q3 9:45 | 7 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q3 4:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:39 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q3 1:25 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q4 13:23 | 7 | 8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 10:01 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q4 7:20 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 4:18 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q4 1:51 | 9 | 93 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/33 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 16 | 114 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace Amaro | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.