Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/17 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 27 | 142 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Javon Ringer | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.