Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· DNP
- OutTravis GoethelLBBack· DNP
- OutWalter McFaddenCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDesmond BryantDTElbow· Limited
- QuestionableMichael BushRBThumb· Limited
Titans
- OutMike OttoTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableColin AllredLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableLeroy HarrisGAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTony BrownDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableWilliam HayesDEKnee· DNP
- DNPWill WitherspoonLBNot Injury Related
- ProbableJacob FordDEBack· Full
- ProbableJustin GageWRHand· Full
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:35 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:53 | 8 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 6:17 | 4 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:39 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 3:06 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q1 1:39 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 14:49 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 9:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 7:34 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LV | Q2 3:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–23 |
| TEN | Q2 1:56 | 1 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LV | Q2 1:43 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| TEN | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–24 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–24 |
| LV | Q3 12:45 | 8 | 52 | Missed field goal | 6–24 |
| TEN | Q3 6:57 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 6–31 |
| LV | Q3 1:47 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 6–31 |
| TEN | Q3 0:56 | 3 | 3 | Touchdown | 6–38 |
| LV | Q4 14:55 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–38 |
| TEN | Q4 9:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–38 |
| LV | Q4 8:26 | 8 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 13–38 |
| TEN | Q4 6:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–38 |
| LV | Q4 4:34 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 13–38 |
| TEN | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 13–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/17 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 27 | 142 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Javon Ringer | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.