Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 30/42 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 6 | 6 | 109 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Collin Mooney | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.