Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Titans
- OutDamian WilliamsWRHip· DNP
- QuestionableBrian SchwenkeCAnkle· Full
- QuestionableDerrick MorganDEGroin· Full
- QuestionableMoise FokouLBKnee· Full
- ProbableDavid StewartTShoulder· Full
- ProbableJustin HunterWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableZaviar GoodenLBHamstring· Full
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· DNP
- OutDenarius MooreWRShoulder· DNP
- OutJason HunterDEFoot· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDaniel MuirDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJuron CrinerWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableTerrelle PryorQBKnee· Limited
- ProbableMike BrisielGAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAndre HolmesWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableMatt McCantsTToe· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 10:55 | 15 | 59 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:38 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q1 2:02 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 13:19 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:55 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:16 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 8:52 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| TEN | Q2 6:25 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 2:53 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| TEN | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 6–9 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 23 | Missed field goal | 6–9 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–9 |
| LV | Q3 12:52 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 13–9 |
| TEN | Q3 8:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–9 |
| LV | Q3 6:05 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 13–12 |
| TEN | Q3 1:41 | 16 | 85 | Field goal | 16–12 |
| LV | Q4 8:52 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–19 |
| TEN | Q4 6:10 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–19 |
| LV | Q4 0:10 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 23–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 30/42 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 6 | 6 | 109 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Collin Mooney | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.