Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
45
Model margin
+0.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/37 | 218 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.