Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
45
Model margin
+0.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKeith McGillCBAnkle· DNP
- OutNeiron BallLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRodney HudsonCAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableLee SmithTEWrist· Full
Titans
- OutAl WoodsDTAnkle· DNP
- OutDexter McClusterRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDerrick MorganLBShoulder· DNP
- ProbableBlidi Wreh-WilsonCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableKendall WrightWRKnee· Full
- ProbableSammie Lee HillDTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:19 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:23 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 5:53 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q1 1:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q2 13:28 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 9:11 | 15 | 94 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:10 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 10–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| TEN | Q3 10:45 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:22 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q3 6:13 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 4:14 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q3 0:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 14:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 12:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 11:43 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 8:54 | 10 | 25 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LV | Q4 4:41 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| TEN | Q4 1:21 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| LV | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/37 | 218 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.