Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/40 | 285 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Fabien Bownes | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.