Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:02 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:27 | 4 | 50 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:31 | 12 | 39 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q1 1:41 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q2 13:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 11:33 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q2 10:34 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| SEA | Q2 6:21 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| LAC | Q2 0:24 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 13–9 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q3 11:20 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 13–16 |
| SEA | Q3 7:20 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q3 3:36 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 13–16 |
| SEA | Q3 0:44 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q3 0:07 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| SEA | Q4 12:04 | 4 | 20 | Missed field goal | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q4 9:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–16 |
| SEA | Q4 9:41 | 3 | 0 | Missed field goal | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q4 8:41 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 16–16 |
| SEA | Q4 6:07 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q4 5:24 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 19–16 |
| SEA | Q4 3:19 | 8 | 64 | Missed field goal | 19–16 |
| LAC | Q4 1:10 | 6 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 19–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/40 | 285 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Fabien Bownes | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.