Closing spread
DET -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.102
- 38.8%Success rate38.6%
- +0.024EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.228
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 35.5%Third-down rate37.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.19Points / drive1.03
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 17/30 | 158 | 0 | 3 |
| Charlie Batch | 6/10 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 8 | 13 | 100 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 27/36 | 301 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 11 | 15 | 170 | 3 |
| Bobby Engram | 10 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.80
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.98