Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.042
- 40.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- 36.6%Third-down rate44.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.72
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/39 | 229 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1/1 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 16/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 9 | 131 | 2 |
| Jake Reed | 5 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84