1999 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

9·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Koy Detmer

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+5.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapEagles
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.192
  • 37.4%Success rate33.4%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.199
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.19Points / drive0.90
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PHI
NEQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
PHIQ1 14:493-1Field goal0–3
NEQ1 14:101139Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 9:58617Punt0–3
NEQ1 7:1033Punt0–3
PHIQ1 6:1132Turnover0–3
NEQ1 4:533-7Turnover0–9
PHIQ1 3:42150Touchdown0–10
NEQ1 3:34939Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 14:5735Punt3–10
NEQ2 14:0433Punt3–10
PHIQ2 12:3834Punt3–10
NEQ2 11:2749Punt3–10
PHIQ2 9:00739Missed field goal3–10
NEQ2 6:55633Field goal6–10
PHIQ2 3:4100Turnover6–10
NEQ2 3:2810Turnover6–16
PHIQ2 3:28111Touchdown6–17
NEQ2 3:02618Punt6–17
PHIQ2 1:0538Punt6–17
NEQ2 0:07111Missed field goal6–17
PHIQ3 15:0036Punt6–17
NEQ3 13:27629Field goal9–17
PHIQ3 10:173-1Punt9–17
NEQ3 8:4810Turnover9–17
PHIQ3 8:37515Turnover9–17
NEQ3 6:5630Punt9–17
PHIQ3 5:56532Punt9–17
NEQ3 4:0333Punt9–17
PHIQ3 2:30348Touchdown9–24
NEQ3 1:08528Turnover on downs9–24
PHIQ4 14:52938Punt9–24
NEQ4 9:151179Turnover on downs9–24
PHIQ4 5:5132Punt9–24
NEQ4 4:4910Turnover9–24
PHIQ4 4:44422Punt9–24
NEQ4 3:23963Turnover9–24
PHIQ4 0:522-2End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe23/4833104

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen14312.20
Lamont Warren9222.40
Drew Bledsoe273.50
Jerry Ellison122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown5101050
Jerry Ellison44500
Ben Coates23420
Shawn Jefferson17410
Lamont Warren33310
Terry Glenn412270
Terry Allen22140
Rod Rutledge11120
Vincent Brisby1290

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Koy Detmer10/2918132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley29933.20
Eric Bieniemy3124.00
Edwin Watson3113.70
Koy Detmer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small310622
Na Brown36600
Dietrich Jells11441
Troy Smith11140
Chad Lewis1240
Luther Broughton0100
Duce Staley0200
Cecil Martin13-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

6.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.83