Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.192
- 37.4%Success rate33.4%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- 35.1%Third-down rate31.2%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.19Points / drive0.90
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 23/48 | 331 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jerry Ellison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| Jerry Ellison | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 12 | 27 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koy Detmer | 10/29 | 181 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 29 | 93 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Edwin Watson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 3 | 10 | 62 | 2 |
| Na Brown | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 1 | 1 | 44 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.83