Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play+0.072
- 46.5%Success rate44.4%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/33 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 30/51 | 357 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54