Closing spread
NE -24
Total
51
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.256
- 45.5%Success rate53.7%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.422
- +0.017EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.87CPOE+7.39
- 43.4%Third-down rate48.4%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.66Points / drive3.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 13:38 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 6:38 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q1 1:35 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 12:50 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| PHI | Q2 12:50 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 11:18 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| PHI | Q2 6:42 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| NE | Q2 3:01 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| PHI | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 21–24 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 21–24 |
| PHI | Q3 13:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–24 |
| NE | Q3 11:27 | 15 | 85 | Missed field goal | 21–24 |
| PHI | Q3 5:00 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| NE | Q3 1:34 | 10 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 28–24 |
| PHI | Q4 13:36 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 28–24 |
| NE | Q4 12:02 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| PHI | Q4 7:20 | 8 | 63 | Turnover | 28–31 |
| NE | Q4 3:52 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 28–31 |
| PHI | Q4 0:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–31 |
| NE | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 27/42 | 345 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/54 | 380 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.39