Closing spread
NE -24
Total
51
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.256
- 45.5%Success rate53.7%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.422
- +0.017EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.87CPOE+7.39
- 43.4%Third-down rate48.4%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.66Points / drive3.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 27/42 | 345 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/54 | 380 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.39