2019 · Week 11

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

17·10

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapEagles
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.004
  • 42.6%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.06CPOE-1.01
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.01
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0047Field goal0–3
NEQ1 13:38415Punt0–3
PHIQ1 12:0846Punt0–3
NEQ1 10:17514Punt0–3
PHIQ1 7:091690Touchdown0–10
NEQ2 12:361348Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 8:373-7Punt3–10
NEQ2 6:411044Field goal6–10
PHIQ2 3:212-6Turnover6–10
NEQ2 2:2631Field goal9–10
PHIQ2 1:44521Punt9–10
NEQ2 0:0200End of half9–10
NEQ3 15:001084Touchdown17–10
PHIQ3 10:4936Punt17–10
NEQ3 9:1735Punt17–10
PHIQ3 8:1865Punt17–10
NEQ3 5:0337Punt17–10
PHIQ3 3:1533Punt17–10
NEQ3 1:3545Punt17–10
PHIQ3 0:05519Punt17–10
NEQ4 12:45831Punt17–10
PHIQ4 10:04427Punt17–10
NEQ4 8:18637Punt17–10
PHIQ4 4:071263Turnover on downs17–10
NEQ4 0:5838Punt17–10
PHIQ4 0:34421End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4721600
Julian Edelman1/11510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel10333.30
James White5204.00
Rex Burkhead5142.80
Mohamed Sanu188.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman510530
Benjamin Watson34520
Rex Burkhead23340
Phillip Dorsett35331
N'Keal Harry34180
James White47160
Sony Michel24110
Jakobi Meyers1270
Mohamed Sanu2440
Matt LaCosse2230

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz20/4021410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders11383.50
Boston Scott7263.70
Carson Wentz3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz911940
Nelson Agholor49400
Dallas Goedert36361
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside11290
Miles Sanders2490
Jordan Matthews1660
Mack Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.45