Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.004
- 42.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.06CPOE-1.01
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.85Points / drive2.01
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/47 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1/1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 20/40 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45