2023 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

25·20

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPatriots
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.189
  • 46.3%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.226
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +3.86CPOE-3.39
  • 47.5%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.00
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NE
PHIQ1 15:001456Field goal3–0
NEQ1 7:42734Opp touchdown10–0
NEQ1 4:5610Turnover10–0
PHIQ1 4:48521Touchdown16–0
NEQ1 2:3931Punt16–0
PHIQ1 1:4932Punt16–0
NEQ2 14:4833Punt16–0
PHIQ2 13:2233Punt16–0
NEQ2 11:4935Punt16–0
PHIQ2 10:3033Punt16–0
NEQ2 9:221071Touchdown16–7
PHIQ2 4:34410Punt16–7
NEQ2 2:33658Touchdown16–14
PHIQ2 0:2513End of half16–14
NEQ3 15:0036Punt16–14
PHIQ3 13:431043Field goal19–14
NEQ3 8:481352Punt19–14
PHIQ3 2:431050Field goal22–14
NEQ4 13:211043Turnover on downs22–14
PHIQ4 9:32745Field goal25–14
NEQ4 5:33775Touchdown25–20
PHIQ4 3:3718Turnover25–20
NEQ4 3:284-2Turnover on downs25–20
PHIQ4 2:2048Turnover on downs25–20
NEQ4 1:57936Turnover on downs25–20
PHIQ4 0:2500End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts22/3317010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell14543.90
Jalen Hurts9374.10
Boston Scott133.00
D'Andre Swift133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown710790
DeVonta Smith710471
Kenny Gainwell44200
Quez Watkins22170
Boston Scott1170
Dallas Goedert0100
D'Andre Swift1200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones35/5431631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott7294.10
Rhamondre Stevenson12252.10
Mac Jones2157.50
Ty Montgomery177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne611642
Rhamondre Stevenson66640
Hunter Henry56561
DeMario Douglas47400
Mike Gesicki33360
JuJu Smith-Schuster47330
Ezekiel Elliott57140
Ty Montgomery2390
Kayshon Boutte0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.71