Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.189
- 46.3%Success rate38.9%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- +3.86CPOE-3.39
- 47.5%Third-down rate30.8%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.30Points / drive1.00
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/33 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 35/54 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 11 | 64 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71