2017 · SB

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

41·33

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPatriots
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.137
  • 43.3%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.042
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.38CPOE+3.49
  • 42.0%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.52
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NE
PHIQ1 15:001372Field goal3–0
NEQ1 7:55962Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 4:17377Touchdown9–3
NEQ1 2:34779Missed field goal9–3
PHIQ2 14:1332Punt9–3
NEQ2 13:11528Turnover on downs9–3
PHIQ2 11:53665Touchdown15–3
NEQ2 8:48448Field goal15–6
PHIQ2 7:24437Turnover15–6
NEQ2 5:01885Touchdown15–12
PHIQ2 2:04770Touchdown22–12
NEQ2 0:34448End of half22–12
NEQ3 15:00875Touchdown22–19
PHIQ3 12:151185Touchdown29–19
NEQ3 7:18870Touchdown29–26
PHIQ3 3:23751Field goal32–26
NEQ4 14:091075Touchdown32–33
PHIQ4 9:221475Touchdown38–33
NEQ4 2:2123Turnover38–33
PHIQ4 2:0934Field goal41–33
NEQ4 1:05840End of half41–33

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles28/4337331
Trey Burton1/1110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14906.41
Jay Ajayi9576.30
Nelson Agholor199.00
Corey Clement382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Clement451001
Nelson Agholor911840
Alshon Jeffery38731
Zach Ertz79671
Torrey Smith59490
Nick Foles1111
Trey Burton0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4850530
Danny Amendola0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James White7456.41
Dion Lewis9394.30
Rex Burkhead3186.00
Tom Brady166.00
Chris Hogan144.00
Brandin Cooks111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola8111520
Chris Hogan681281
Rob Gronkowski9151162
Rex Burkhead11460
Brandin Cooks12230
James White26210
Phillip Dorsett12190
Tom Brady0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.25