Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.137
- 43.3%Success rate49.2%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.042
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.38CPOE+3.49
- 42.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.12Points / drive2.52
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 28/43 | 373 | 3 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 4 | 5 | 100 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 9 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/48 | 505 | 3 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 11 | 152 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 8 | 128 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 15 | 116 | 2 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.25