Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
38
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.047
- 40.7%Success rate43.4%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.161EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 37.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.42Points / drive1.99
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:32 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:24 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:33 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:10 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:00 | 10 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q2 9:17 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:11 | 4 | 35 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q2 7:59 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 4:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:52 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q2 2:09 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:46 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| NE | Q3 12:05 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q3 9:10 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| PHI | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–7 |
| NE | Q3 6:29 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 24–7 |
| PHI | Q3 1:08 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 24–7 |
| NE | Q4 12:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–7 |
| PHI | Q4 12:02 | 4 | 8 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–10 |
| PHI | Q4 8:59 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| NE | Q4 7:38 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 24–10 |
| PHI | Q4 5:15 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 31–10 |
| PHI | Q4 5:02 | 8 | 32 | Turnover | 31–10 |
| NE | Q4 2:40 | 2 | -4 | Punt | 31–10 |
| PHI | Q4 0:59 | 3 | 34 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/44 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Fred McCrary | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/46 | 186 | 0 | 2 |
| Koy Detmer | 2/2 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.55