2003 · Week 2

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

31·10

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

38

Model margin

+2.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapEagles
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.047
  • 40.7%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.161EPA / rush+0.019
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.99
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.031

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4425530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith12252.10
Kevin Faulk7233.30
Tom Brady671.20
Fred McCrary100.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/4618602
Koy Detmer2/22500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb6538.80
Brian Westbrook6294.80
Duce Staley5173.41

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.55