Closing spread
NE -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play+0.053
- 51.2%Success rate47.0%
- +0.301EPA / dropback+0.077
- +0.019EPA / rush+0.010
- 9.8%Explosive rate12.1%
- +3.92CPOE+0.41
- 46.4%Third-down rate42.0%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 2.61Points / drive1.91
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/34 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 6 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 8 | 12 | 115 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 26/48 | 400 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 8 | 14 | 110 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.04