2011 · Week 12

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

38·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Vince Young

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapEagles
  • +0.193EPA / play+0.053
  • 51.2%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback+0.077
  • +0.019EPA / rush+0.010
  • 9.8%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +3.92CPOE+0.41
  • 46.4%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.91
  • 1.3%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. PHI are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2015 · W13PHI @ NE35–28PHI
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00584Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 12:43519Punt0–7
PHIQ1 10:36655Field goal0–10
NEQ1 8:191370Touchdown7–10
PHIQ1 1:2738Punt7–10
NEQ2 14:45556Touchdown14–10
PHIQ2 13:1210Turnover14–10
NEQ2 12:58513Missed field goal14–10
PHIQ2 10:203-2Punt14–10
NEQ2 8:54576Touchdown21–10
PHIQ2 7:09978Field goal21–13
NEQ2 2:11842Field goal24–13
PHIQ2 0:5134Punt24–13
NEQ2 0:0200End of half24–13
NEQ3 15:00869Touchdown31–13
PHIQ3 11:271078Turnover on downs31–13
NEQ3 6:27631Punt31–13
PHIQ3 3:20739Punt31–13
NEQ3 1:021475Touchdown38–13
PHIQ4 8:35517Punt38–13
NEQ4 6:5448Punt38–13
PHIQ4 5:0718105Touchdown38–20
NEQ4 0:3200End of half38–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3436130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis14443.12
Tom Brady5285.60
Danny Woodhead4205.00
Shane Vereen7182.60
Stevan Ridley441.00
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00
Wes Welker1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch6101250
Wes Welker8121152
Aaron Hernandez67620
Rob Gronkowski44591
Tiquan Underwood0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young26/4840011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vince Young6406.70
LeSean McCoy10313.11
Chad Hall122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant8141101
Brent Celek56750
DeSean Jackson410730
Riley Cooper35710
LeSean McCoy47300
Clay Harbor11250
Chad Hall15160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.04