Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.089
- 42.7%Success rate44.0%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.86CPOE-0.32
- 39.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.56Points / drive2.25
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 14/24 | 120 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Krause | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/56 | 312 | 3 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 1/1 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 10 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 13 | 62 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.38