2015 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

35·28

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPatriots
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.089
  • 42.7%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.86CPOE-0.32
  • 39.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.25
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. NE are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1PHI @ NE25–20PHI
2019 · W11NE @ PHI17–10NE
2017 · playoffsPHI @ NE41–33PHI
2011 · W12NE @ PHI38–20NE
2007 · W12PHI @ NE28–31NE
2004 · playoffsNE @ PHI24–21NE
2003 · W2NE @ PHI31–10NE
1999 · W15NE @ PHI9–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NE
PHIQ1 15:00932Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:12513Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:17641Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:3240Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:373-2Punt0–0
NEQ1 3:431080Touchdown0–7
PHIQ2 14:57514Punt0–7
NEQ2 12:40938Touchdown0–14
PHIQ2 7:47859Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 4:0432Punt7–14
PHIQ2 3:04417Punt7–14
NEQ2 1:32525Opp touchdown14–14
NEQ2 0:0800End of half14–14
NEQ3 15:00620Punt14–14
PHIQ3 11:3531Punt14–14
NEQ3 10:40841Opp touchdown21–14
NEQ3 7:26727Opp touchdown28–14
NEQ3 4:18443Turnover28–14
PHIQ3 2:161369Touchdown35–14
NEQ4 11:0930Punt35–14
PHIQ4 10:103-3Punt35–14
NEQ4 7:45771Touchdown35–21
PHIQ4 5:2700Touchdown35–21
NEQ4 5:25956Touchdown35–28
PHIQ4 3:00621Turnover35–28
NEQ4 1:02612Turnover on downs35–28
PHIQ4 0:2000End of half35–28

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford14/2412020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles15664.40
Kenjon Barner9394.30
DeMarco Murray8243.00
Sam Bradford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews36361
Darren Sproles46340
Brent Celek11160
Riley Cooper11140
Zach Ertz2491
Kenjon Barner2270
Jonathan Krause1240
Nelson Agholor0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/5631232
Danny Amendola1/13600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13544.20
Brandon Bolden3227.30
Tom Brady6172.81
Damaris Johnson166.00
James White242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White10131151
Danny Amendola713621
Scott Chandler47611
Keshawn Martin38450
Tom Brady11360
Brandon LaFell49270
Brandon Bolden1520

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.38