1999 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mike Tomczak

19·35

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

37

Model margin

+1.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.6%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.105
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.01
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.134

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:00763Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 11:10564Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 8:43628Field goal10–7
KCQ1 5:0747Punt10–7
PITQ1 3:09518Missed field goal10–7
KCQ1 0:21723Punt10–7
PITQ2 12:3158Opp touchdown10–14
KCQ2 10:1600Opp touchdown10–14
PITQ2 10:164-1Punt10–14
KCQ2 9:00977Touchdown10–21
PITQ2 4:171147Field goal13–21
KCQ2 0:0300End of half13–21
KCQ3 15:003-1Punt13–21
PITQ3 13:36622Punt13–21
KCQ3 10:5832Punt13–21
PITQ3 9:3831Punt13–21
KCQ3 8:40623Punt13–21
PITQ3 5:57623Punt13–21
KCQ3 2:28291Touchdown13–28
PITQ3 1:29524Turnover13–28
KCQ4 14:5438Punt13–28
PITQ4 13:12965Turnover13–28
KCQ4 9:28620Punt13–28
PITQ4 5:59610Punt13–28
KCQ4 4:33650Touchdown13–35
PITQ4 1:56668Touchdown19–35
KCQ4 0:3400Turnover19–35
PITQ4 0:3150Turnover19–35

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Tomczak23/4627824

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis19633.30
Richard Huntley6376.20
Kordell Stewart155.00
Mike Tomczak221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Shaw34691
Troy Edwards511581
Hines Ward45410
Richard Huntley33330
Kordell Stewart24210
Mitch Lyons23160
Jerome Bettis1390
Mark Bruener1160
Matt Cushing0100
Malcolm Johnson0500

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac12/2214920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Alexander18282.01
Bam Morris17714.21
Joe Horn199.00
Mike Cloud100.00
Elvis Grbac1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez68932
Joe Horn12230
Derrick Alexander23200
Mike Cloud11120
Bam Morris1240
Kevin Lockett0100
Andre Rison0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.89