Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.027
- 41.6%Success rate38.7%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.105
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.1%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.27Points / drive1.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 23/46 | 278 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 5 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 12/22 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 82 | 82.0 | 1 |
| Bam Morris | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 8 | 93 | 2 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89