Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
52
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play+0.102
- 50.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.194
- +0.018EPA / rush-0.112
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.64CPOE+1.39
- 47.8%Third-down rate43.9%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 3.03Points / drive2.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/28 | 326 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 109 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 7 | 100 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 39/60 | 452 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Switzer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse James | 5 | 5 | 138 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13 | 19 | 121 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 17 | 67 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76