2018 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

42·37

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

52

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.236EPA / play+0.102
  • 50.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.194
  • +0.018EPA / rush-0.112
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.64CPOE+1.39
  • 47.8%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 3.03Points / drive2.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:08320Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 13:053-3Punt7–0
KCQ1 11:40571Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 9:081063Missed field goal14–0
KCQ1 5:04661Touchdown21–0
PITQ1 2:24776Touchdown21–7
KCQ2 14:20310Punt21–7
PITQ2 12:081283Touchdown21–13
KCQ2 6:27521Punt21–13
PITQ2 3:061175Touchdown21–21
KCQ2 0:1800End of half21–21
KCQ3 15:00575Touchdown28–21
PITQ3 12:421371Touchdown28–28
KCQ3 7:12770Touchdown35–28
PITQ3 3:1537Punt35–28
KCQ3 1:46765Touchdown42–28
PITQ4 13:42415Punt42–28
KCQ4 12:142-1Safety42–30
PITQ4 12:02624Punt42–30
KCQ4 9:16841Turnover42–30
PITQ4 5:03966Touchdown42–37
KCQ4 1:59518End of half42–37

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/2832660

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt18754.20
Sammy Watkins13131.00
Patrick Mahomes5183.60
Spencer Ware133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce7101092
Sammy Watkins671000
Tyreek Hill56901
Chris Conley22171
Kareem Hunt1151
Demarcus Robinson1131
Damien Williams1120

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger39/6045230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner8172.11
Ben Roethlisberger294.51
Ryan Switzer252.50
Stevan Ridley122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jesse James551381
JuJu Smith-Schuster13191211
Antonio Brown917670
James Conner55480
Vance McDonald35260
Ryan Switzer12140
James Washington15141
Stevan Ridley1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76