Closing spread
KC -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.033
- 45.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.85CPOE+0.03
- 39.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.08Points / drive1.92
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Jones | 16/29 | 209 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 17 | 121 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 8 | 124 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/32 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.76
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.40