2015 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Landry Jones

13·23

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.033
  • 45.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.85CPOE+0.03
  • 39.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.92
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:55948Field goal0–3
PITQ1 8:471361Field goal3–3
KCQ1 0:591292Field goal3–6
PITQ2 8:55843Turnover on downs3–6
KCQ2 4:41759Field goal3–9
PITQ2 1:00421Turnover3–9
KCQ2 0:2734Missed field goal3–9
PITQ2 0:0400End of half3–9
KCQ3 15:0033Punt3–9
PITQ3 13:48533Punt3–9
KCQ3 11:3236Punt3–9
PITQ3 10:32213Turnover3–9
KCQ3 9:45958Touchdown3–16
PITQ3 4:23677Touchdown10–16
KCQ3 1:40414Punt10–16
PITQ4 14:13654Field goal13–16
KCQ4 10:17884Touchdown13–23
PITQ4 5:13818Turnover13–23
KCQ4 2:05311End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Landry Jones16/2920912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell171217.10
Martavis Bryant11313.00
DeAngelo Williams492.30
Antonio Brown166.00
Landry Jones1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown681240
Martavis Bryant38451
Markus Wheaton24160
Le'Veon Bell44160
DeAngelo Williams1280
Heath Miller0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3225110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West221105.01
De'Anthony Thomas11313.00
Spencer Ware284.00
Alex Smith351.70
Knile Davis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce56730
Albert Wilson36710
Chris Conley67631
Charcandrick West25190
De'Anthony Thomas23120
Jason Avant22110
James O'Shaughnessy1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.76
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.40