Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.082
- 46.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- +3.69CPOE+4.58
- 43.8%Third-down rate39.2%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.22Points / drive2.21
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/25 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 32 | 179 | 5.6 | 1 |
| James Conner | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 10 | 155 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/34 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.22