2017 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

19·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.082
  • 46.0%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +3.69CPOE+4.58
  • 43.8%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.21
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:4131Safety2–0
PITQ1 7:4900Field goal2–0
KCQ1 7:4934Field goal2–3
PITQ1 6:201169Touchdown2–3
PITQ1 0:2118Touchdown2–3
PITQ1 0:0013Touchdown9–3
KCQ2 14:5530Punt9–3
PITQ2 12:13425Turnover9–3
KCQ2 9:5934Punt9–3
PITQ2 8:511193Field goal12–3
KCQ2 2:086-3End of half12–3
KCQ3 15:0039Punt12–3
PITQ3 12:33424Punt12–3
KCQ3 9:52410Punt12–3
PITQ3 8:13764Punt12–3
KCQ3 3:561074Turnover on downs12–3
PITQ4 12:47644Punt12–3
KCQ4 9:03892Touchdown12–10
PITQ4 6:13575Touchdown19–10
KCQ4 3:24552Field goal19–13
PITQ4 2:1732Punt19–13
KCQ4 1:4268Turnover on downs19–13
PITQ4 0:5200End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2525211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell321795.61
James Conner2147.00
Terrell Watson133.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown8101551
JuJu Smith-Schuster33320
Martavis Bryant23270
Vance McDonald12260
Le'Veon Bell36120

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3424610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt9212.30
Alex Smith4133.30
Akeem Hunt133.00
Tyreek Hill1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kareem Hunt56890
De'Anthony Thomas34611
Travis Kelce47370
Tyreek Hill57340
Demarcus Robinson15160
Charcandrick West1190
Demetrius Harris0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.22