2016 · Week 4

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

14·43

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

48

Model margin

+2.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.085
  • 42.7%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.043
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +2.15CPOE+1.74
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.24
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PIT
KCQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:28850Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:5513Turnover0–0
PITQ1 8:50332Touchdown0–8
KCQ1 7:27414Turnover0–14
PITQ1 5:1414Touchdown0–15
KCQ1 5:10520Punt0–15
PITQ1 2:07240Touchdown0–22
KCQ1 1:2032Punt0–22
PITQ1 0:21733Punt0–22
KCQ2 11:001138Punt0–22
PITQ2 4:281080Touchdown0–29
KCQ2 0:44444Missed field goal0–29
PITQ2 0:0400End of half0–29
PITQ3 15:00675Touchdown0–36
KCQ3 11:19520Punt0–36
PITQ3 9:02536Punt0–36
KCQ3 5:171885Turnover on downs0–36
PITQ3 0:2536Punt0–36
KCQ4 13:28747Touchdown7–36
PITQ4 11:11875Touchdown7–43
KCQ4 7:2230Punt7–43
PITQ4 5:5736Punt7–43
KCQ4 3:45857Touchdown14–43
PITQ4 0:0400End of half14–43

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith30/5028721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware13826.30
Jamaal Charles273.50
Alex Smith122.00
Knile Davis1-2-2.00
Tyreek Hill1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin58780
Chris Conley67700
Albert Wilson58520
Tyreek Hill57241
Travis Kelce58231
Knile Davis23140
Spencer Ware15140
Demetrius Harris11120
Jamaal Charles0100
Ross Travis0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/2730050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell181448.00
DeAngelo Williams471.81
Landry Jones200.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00
Sammie Coates1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Coates68790
Antonio Brown45642
Le'Veon Bell56340
Darrius Heyward-Bey11311
Markus Wheaton11301
David Johnson11260
Xavier Grimble12190
Jesse James22151
DeAngelo Williams1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.65