Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
48
Model margin
+2.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.085
- 42.7%Success rate46.0%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.8%
- +2.15CPOE+1.74
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.88Points / drive2.24
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 30/50 | 287 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/27 | 300 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 144 | 8.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Landry Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Coates | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 5 | 64 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.65