Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.140
- 40.2%Success rate51.1%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.66CPOE+2.81
- 39.0%Third-down rate52.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.65Points / drive2.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/35 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
| Mason Rudolph | 5/8 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Cody White | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/30 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 6 | 7 | 75 | 2 |
| Derrick Gore | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.17