2021 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

10·36

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.140
  • 40.2%Success rate51.1%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.024
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.66CPOE+2.81
  • 39.0%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.66
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:0058Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:171568Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:0710Turnover0–7
KCQ1 3:59644Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 1:05517Punt0–14
KCQ2 13:46954Field goal0–17
PITQ2 8:45857Missed field goal0–17
KCQ2 5:03674Touchdown0–23
PITQ2 2:1346Turnover on downs0–23
KCQ2 1:23515Missed field goal0–23
PITQ2 0:18321End of half0–23
KCQ3 15:0049Punt0–23
PITQ3 13:26210Turnover0–23
KCQ3 12:44751Touchdown0–30
PITQ3 8:531658Field goal3–30
KCQ3 3:341159Field goal3–33
PITQ4 11:571-13Turnover3–33
KCQ4 11:4331Field goal3–36
PITQ4 9:411785Touchdown10–36
KCQ4 2:5436Punt10–36
PITQ4 2:16954End of half10–36

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3515911
Mason Rudolph5/83500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris19934.90
Benny Snell5204.00
Mason Rudolph11717.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson69511
Chase Claypool46410
Zach Gentry44310
Ray-Ray McCloud48250
Najee Harris57170
Cody White33160
Kevin Rader1270
Benny Snell1160
James Washington0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3025830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams11555.00
Derrick Gore12433.60
Clyde Edwards-Helaire9273.01
Chad Henne200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Pringle67752
Derrick Gore33610
Mecole Hardman35311
Darrel Williams33300
Tyreek Hill22190
Demarcus Robinson22150
Noah Gray22120
Blake Bell11110
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1140
Josh Gordon0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.17