2021 · WC

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

21·42

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -13

Total

46

Model margin

+4.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.140
  • 40.2%Success rate51.1%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.024
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.66CPOE+2.81
  • 39.0%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.66
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:1732Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:5732Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:51429Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:453-3Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:3010Turnover0–0
PITQ1 6:22513Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:58934Punt0–0
PITQ2 15:00620Punt0–0
KCQ2 11:1322Opp touchdown7–0
KCQ2 10:41881Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 5:4538Punt7–7
KCQ2 4:38774Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 1:5535Punt7–14
KCQ2 0:52680Touchdown7–21
PITQ2 0:1300End of half7–21
KCQ3 15:00968Touchdown7–28
PITQ3 10:131-1Turnover7–28
KCQ3 9:56229Touchdown7–35
PITQ3 9:141075Touchdown14–35
KCQ3 4:10975Touchdown14–42
PITQ4 14:131770Touchdown21–42
KCQ4 7:3654Punt21–42
PITQ4 4:241369End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4421520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris12292.40
Benny Snell2157.50
Kalen Ballage4133.30
Ben Roethlisberger2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington23371
Diontae Johnson510341
Zach Gentry44330
JuJu Smith-Schuster58260
Chase Claypool37250
Pat Freiermuth45250
Ray-Ray McCloud22200
Benny Snell22160
Najee Harris22-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes30/3940451
Travis Kelce1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon12615.10
Patrick Mahomes3299.70
Mecole Hardman263.00
Darrel Williams144.00
Derrick Gore331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce571081
Jerick McKinnon66811
Demarcus Robinson45760
Tyreek Hill55571
Mecole Hardman44430
Byron Pringle57372
Blake Bell1130
Noah Gray0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.01