Closing spread
KC -13
Total
46
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.140
- 40.2%Success rate51.1%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.66CPOE+2.81
- 39.0%Third-down rate52.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.65Points / drive2.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/44 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 34 | 1 |
| Zach Gentry | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/39 | 404 | 5 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 108 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 7 | 37 | 2 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.01