Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.012
- 46.0%Success rate42.7%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.74CPOE+2.15
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 2.24Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/31 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 30 | 170 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 11 | 108 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Ayers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/34 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.39