2016 · DIV

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

18·16

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.012
  • 46.0%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.74CPOE+2.15
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:001066Field goal3–0
KCQ1 9:38655Touchdown3–7
PITQ1 6:09655Field goal6–7
KCQ1 3:51626Punt6–7
PITQ1 0:481353Field goal9–7
KCQ2 9:18310Turnover9–7
PITQ2 7:58439Turnover9–7
KCQ2 6:0433Punt9–7
PITQ2 5:03833Field goal12–7
KCQ2 0:55412Turnover12–7
PITQ2 0:03129End of half12–7
KCQ3 15:003-1Punt12–7
PITQ3 13:48649Field goal15–7
KCQ3 10:06814Punt15–7
PITQ3 5:1239Punt15–7
KCQ3 3:00631Field goal15–10
PITQ3 0:10945Field goal18–10
KCQ4 9:491677Touchdown18–16
PITQ4 2:43314End of half18–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/3122401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell301705.70
Ben Roethlisberger410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown6111080
Jesse James56830
Eli Rogers57270
DeMarcus Ayers1160
Cobi Hamilton1140
Le'Veon Bell25-40

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3417211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware8354.41
Tyreek Hill3186.00
Alex Smith294.50
Charcandrick West1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce57770
Jeremy Maclin24280
Tyreek Hill46270
Chris Conley23190
Charcandrick West22140
Albert Wilson2331
Spencer Ware2410
Demetrius Harris0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.39