2024 · Week 17

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

29·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.027
  • 47.7%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.124
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.51CPOE+3.65
  • 48.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.86
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC
2014 · W16KC @ PIT12–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:15842Touchdown6–0
PITQ1 9:1954Punt6–0
KCQ1 6:33779Touchdown13–0
PITQ1 4:00569Turnover13–0
KCQ1 2:0938Punt13–0
PITQ1 0:361172Touchdown13–7
KCQ2 10:28839Punt13–7
PITQ2 6:06925Punt13–7
KCQ2 1:0437Punt13–7
PITQ2 0:31314End of half13–7
KCQ3 15:00854Field goal16–7
PITQ3 12:211147Field goal16–10
KCQ3 5:451192Touchdown22–10
PITQ4 14:5635Turnover22–10
KCQ4 14:02434Touchdown29–10
PITQ4 12:381038Turnover on downs29–10
KCQ4 9:58625Punt29–10
PITQ4 6:3238Punt29–10
KCQ4 5:5439Punt29–10
PITQ4 3:311285End of half29–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/3832030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt9202.21
Isiah Pacheco6183.00
Patrick Mahomes11212.00
Xavier Worthy2105.00
Samaje Perine294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce811841
Xavier Worthy89791
Justin Watson22601
Marquise Brown47460
Samaje Perine22200
JuJu Smith-Schuster22180
DeAndre Hopkins2470
Noah Gray1160

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3720501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris13745.70
Jaylen Warren11716.50
Russell Wilson6559.21
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth78600
George Pickens37500
Jaylen Warren56410
Calvin Austin III45310
Darnell Washington1180
Najee Harris2470
Mike Williams0200
Van Jefferson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.54