Closing spread
KC -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.027
- 47.7%Success rate40.7%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.124
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.51CPOE+3.65
- 48.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.36Points / drive1.86
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/38 | 320 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 8 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 60 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/37 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.54